Mercury recently released the company’s 2025 Ecommerce Holiday Report, which revealed important insights about profit, AI, and what’s shaping the holiday season for ecommerce leaders. These insights give an inside look into how they’re preparing for this busy period, the types of pressure they’re facing, the channels they’re focusing on, and more.
Profitability is Surprisingly Up
The 2025 Ecommerce Holiday Report, commissioned by Mercury, surveyed 750 ecommerce leaders based in the U.S. and asked them a variety of questions about how they’re approaching this holiday season and how the industry itself is changing.
While it’s been a relatively difficult and unpredictable year for ecommerce with rising costs and many consumers being more careful with spending, profitability is actually up.
According to the report, 73% of respondents said that profits either rose moderately or significantly over the past 12 months. This is even more common amongst larger companies, as 87% of companies with over 500 employees report increasing profits.
Also, the report found that profitability increases were more common among companies that use AI extensively. In fact, companies using AI extensively were more than two times more likely than those not using AI (or only using it a little) to report increased profitability.
Similarly, 50% of heavy AI users reported significant profitability, while only 11% of non-AI users reported the same gains.
In addition to surprising levels of profitability, the report also highlighted that ecommerce businesses are optimistic about 2026. 88% of respondents were somewhat or strongly optimistic about business prospects in 2026, vs. only 4% that had a negative outlook.
Economic Pressures That Shape Holiday Planning
The research also looked into the forces that are pressuring ecommerce leaders and having the largest impact on shaping the holiday season. When asked about these pressures and which are influencing this holiday season, research found that:
- 52% of respondents said rising shipping and freight costs.
- 44% said macroeconomic uncertainty.
- 44% said changes in consumer confidence.
- 41% said competition from major retailers and marketplaces.
- 40% said changes to AI-driven marketing, search, and operations.
- 38% said rising labor costs or labor shortages.
- 37% said reduced access to capital or higher financing costs.
AI Continues to Have a Massive Role This Holiday Season
As you could imagine, the report also noted that AI is having a significant impact on holiday planning, as 86% of respondents said that they rely on AI either extensively or somewhat within their business.
While AI usage is broad and is high among all businesses, the percentage of companies using AI somewhat or exclusively varies depending on business size:
- 64% of companies with 1-10 employees.
- 84% of companies with 11-49 employees.
- 93% of companies with 50-499 employees.
- 96% of companies with 500+ employees.
AI generally provides cost savings to businesses in a variety of ways, but the report actually found that many ecommerce teams are actually spending more money this holiday season due to AI:
- 80% are spending more on reporting and insights.
- 78% are spending more on creative development.
- 77% are spending more on competitive analysis.
- 76% are spending more on forecasting.
- 76% are spending more on campaign optimization.
- 74% are spending more on audience segmentation.
Of course, the significant role that AI has carved out for itself among ecommerce businesses extends far beyond the holidays. In fact, according to forecasts, the AI in ecommerce market is expected to grow by nearly $27 billion between 2024 and 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.7% during this period.
Betting on the Right Channels During the Holidays
The ecommerce leaders surveyed in this report predict that distribution channels like paid social (70% of respondents) and large marketplaces like Walmart and Amazon (55% of respondents) will drive the most revenue during the holidays.
However, the research also notes that AI search is at the forefront of the minds of ecommerce leaders, as well. 90% say it’ll positively influence sales this season, 86% believe it’ll help them reach new customers, and 74% said it would lower their marketing costs.
But on the other hand, there are some conflicting feelings, as 43% of respondents also worry that it may make it harder for new customers to find their products, and 65% worry that it may increase their customer acquisition cost.
Whether you prioritize AI search, paid social, or a different channel altogether, it’s important to put your focus on the channels that drive the most revenue during the holidays. It’s a relatively short season, so you need to make the most of it and invest your time and money where it’ll have the largest benefit.
To find out which channels you should be focusing on this holiday season, look at your revenue by channel, conversion rate by channel, the cost of acquiring customers through your various channels, and identify the channels that bring in customers with high customer lifetime value (CLV).
