A recent report found that online grocery sales are expected to rise dramatically over the next few years. It also found that omnichannel grocery shopping is becoming much more normal and that online grocery shopping is driving most of the growth within groceries in general.
U.S. Online Grocery Sales Expected to Skyrocket
The report, which was conducted and released by The Food Industry Association (FMI) and NielsenIQ, a consumer intelligence company, projects that total U.S. online grocery sales will reach $452 billion by 2028. This means that online grocery sales in the region are expected to increase at an annual rate of 11.6% through 2028.
This report comes only a few months after eGrocery sales hit a record high, so I could certainly see the industry growing as large and as rapidly as the report suggests.
Ecommerce Driving Grocery Growth in General
According to the report, ecommerce is driving most of the grocery dollar growth within the industry as a whole. In fact, in 2025 alone, online sales contributed nearly 75% of total grocery dollar growth, while in-store sales remained fairly stable. Also, while food purchases are still primarily store-led, online food sales jumped by almost 19% in 2025.
In fact, the report found that if ecommerce didn’t exist, many grocery categories would post flat or even declining sales. This may reinforce the idea that digital is competitive with in-store shopping, as opposed to being complementary.
Omnichannel is the New Norm
However, instead of choosing to solely shop for groceries in-store or online, most people opt for a mix of the two. The report found that just shy of 94% of grocery shoppers in 2025 purchased both online and in-store, based on needs, timing, and convenience.
This isn’t surprising, as many of the largest grocery retailers around the country have invested in mobile apps or other digital shopping platforms or experiences. As customer needs and preferences shift, these companies know the importance of meeting these needs and ensuring their products are found wherever the customer is looking for them.
Points of Competitive Differentiation
The research also notes a couple of critical points of competitive differentiation, which are important for brands to keep in mind as competition heats up in this growing space. As online grocery scales, both fulfillment and speed are becoming crucial.
Average delivery times have fallen dramatically in recent years, and shoppers are increasingly expecting next-day or same-day delivery, especially when buying groceries. All in all, the companies that can deliver an intuitive experience, a seamless and stress-free fulfilment process, and rapid delivery have a good chance of finding success.
The Next Phase of the Digital Revolution
The end of the report states that the research points to the next stage of digital evolution, which is AI. Specifically, it says that agentic tools have the potential to change how customers engage with grocery. To stay on top of these technologies, brands need to prepare now as they mature, rather than try to play catch-up once they’ve already taken over the space.
This report and the data inside it are huge not only for online grocery and/or delivery companies, but also for ecommerce companies in general. In particular, it shows that consumers are getting more comfortable with ecommerce, especially for items traditionally not bought online, and that digital isn’t only about convenience anymore, but a core channel for retail.
