As global ecommerce grows in popularity, cross-border sales continue to explode, and customer demands rise, the air freight market needs to keep up.
Thankfully, the industry is primed for massive growth over the coming years, not only due to increased ecommerce activity but also increased infrastructure investment, AI, and the growing adoption of digital cargo platforms.
Major Growth Expected for the Air Freight Market
The air freight market, which plays a major role in delivering products to online shoppers across the globe, is expected to see massive growth over the next decade. While the market is valued at $389.55 billion in 2026, this is projected to expand to $642.20 by 2035.
The market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% through the forecast period.
This growth in air freight is very important for ecommerce sellers, as it allows them to scale cross-border operations without being held back, and lets them meet growing customer demands for fast and reliable deliveries.
The Drivers of This Projected Growth
One of the primary drivers of this expected growth is the overall rise in cross-border ecommerce activity. As more people buy items online from other countries, the demand for international air cargo also increases, which requires more aircraft in the sky to deliver these items globally.
Many companies around the world are bumping up their air cargo capacity to keep up with this ecommerce growth and rising international air shipment volumes, which in turn pushes the air freight market forward. For example, DHL recently expanded the company’s air freight capacity between Europe and Asia.
In addition to more cross-border ecommerce sales fueling this growth, AI has also had an impact on the market. It has improved cargo visibility and helped coordinate logistics in real-time across global supply chains. AI is also used to make predictions about cargo demand, minimize shipping delays, weather forecasts, and more.
All of these come together to help cargo companies gain more insights, optimize their schedules, and boost transportation efficiency. Finally, the adoption and implementation of digital cargo platforms is also on the rise, helping cargo companies book, track, and manage their operations more efficiently in general.
But in addition to drivers, the report also mentions a potential restraint of the industry, which is fuel prices. While the market is expected to grow, fluctuating and unpredictable fuel prices could hold it back over the coming years and hurt profitability.
Segmental Insights
First, the report found that retail and ecommerce had the largest market share of any end-use industry, at 26% of the market in 2025. This is expected to grow to 30% by 2035, which is 10% higher than the next closest industry in 2035, which is health and pharmaceuticals, and shows the major role that ecommerce sales have on air freight in general.
Another important insight is that the express freight segment is dominating the market, with a 38% share in 2025, which is expected to rise even higher to 42% in 2035. This highlights the increased demand for quick deliveries among customers.
As far as exact delivery speeds, same-day and next-day deliveries are expected to grow throughout the next decade, while economy deliveries are seeing a dramatic decrease.
Same-day deliveries are expected to grow from an 18% share in 2025 to a 22% share in 2035, next-day deliveries are projected to expand from 46% to 48%, with economy deliveries going from 36% in 2025 to 30% in 2035.
As a result, fast deliveries are no longer a selling point or differentiator, but an expectation among many people buying products internationally. In fact, rapid delivery speeds are crucial for ecommerce brands to offer, as fast deliveries are among the most important elements in online shopping for consumers.
So if your company can’t keep up with the times and offer same or next-day shipping, even internationally, you may lag behind your competition. However, these faster deliveries often come with higher costs, so your company should prepare for that if you’re looking to offer these rapid international deliveries.
Asia-Pacific Leads the Market
Asia Pacific currently dominates the air freight market, with 39% market share, 11% higher than the next closest region, which is North America at 28%. The Asia-Pacific region leads the pack due to its large-scale manufacturing and the fact that it’s very export-oriented, often shipping a ton of products to other parts of the world.
Behind those two leaders, there’s Europe at 24%, the Middle East & Africa at 5%, and Latin America at 4%. By 2035, projections expect the Asia Pacific region to expand its lead up to a 43% market share, with North America and Europe dropping to 25% and 22% respectively.
Our Take
Air Freight Growth Also Points to the Continued Explosion of Cross-Border Ecommerce
While these are projections about the air freight market, they also double as a sign of potential things to come for cross-border ecommerce. With the air freight market rising, and ecommerce/retail having the largest market share, it points to cross-border ecommerce also experiencing plenty of growth over the next decade.
As a result, companies need to consider selling internationally if they don’t already. There’s no better time than now to expand your horizons and reach new markets with your products. If you restrict yourself, whether due to fear of the unknown or worrying about the complexities involved, you’ll almost certainly fall behind your competition that operates globally.
Thankfully, it’s becoming easier than ever to ship and sell internationally due to better technology and supply chains, and these projections show that this increase in global trade isn’t likely to be a short-term trend, but a true changing of the guard where cross-border ecommerce becomes just as common as selling and shipping domestically.
