“We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that is not the case,” said Jonathan Gold, VP for supply chain and customs policy at the NRF. “But consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand.”
The Numbers from the Global Port Tracker
US ports handled 2.3 million TEU in July, the latest month with final numbers. August was projected at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3 percent year-on-year. September is forecast at 2.31 million TEU, up 9.6 percent year-on-year, making it slightly ahead of July as the expected busiest month of 2026.
The easing begins in October at 2.11 million TEU, still up 1.7 percent year-on-year. November at 2 million TEU, down 0.9 percent. December at 2.03 million TEU, up 1.1 percent. Total 2026 import volume is forecast at 25.7 million TEU, up 1 percent from 2025.
Why the Season Extended Later Than Expected
Two distinct forces pushed the peak later. Vessel delays due to bad weather in China and Panama Canal rerouting have shifted cargo timing. Ships expected in July or August are arriving in September. This is not a demand signal, it is a logistics shift that has the same effect on port volumes as a demand increase without necessarily reflecting more merchandise ordered.
Simultaneously, underlying consumer demand has remained elevated. Ben Hackett confirmed: “Imports have remained buoyant over the past three months despite several hurdles. Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly, although there are reports of vessel delays and increased times required for cargo to move through the supply chain.”
Both forces are operating simultaneously. The logistics disruptions pushed some volume later. The underlying consumer demand kept that volume elevated rather than allowing it to normalise.
What This Means for the Q4 Cost Picture
EcomWatch covered the peak season fulfillment cost crunch earlier this month, documenting freight shippers paying 30 percent more to move 3 percent less freight, and warehouse vacancy at its lowest point since 2022. The extended import peak adds a specific logistics dimension to that picture.
When September port volumes run at 2.31 million TEU instead of the lower volumes that would accompany a normal post-peak easing, the downstream logistics infrastructure remains under pressure through October rather than beginning to ease. September’s extended volume is the signal that the improvement will arrive later and more gradually than assumed.
The Inventory Timing Implication
For brands using Amazon FBA, the Amazon peak fees begin October 15. For brands managing their own inventory, the September port volume suggests that goods ordered from overseas suppliers in late July or August are arriving in September containers, in an elevated-volume port environment that may create processing delays.
The Clearco inventory strategy survey we covered this week found 93 percent of ecommerce operators changed their inventory strategy this year, with 37 percent ordering earlier than usual. The September port data confirms that the brands that ordered earlier are seeing their goods arrive in an elevated-volume port environment rather than the smooth early-arrival advantage they were seeking.
Our Take
The Import Season Thought It Was Ending. September Disagrees.
The NRF/Hackett September port forecast is a direct input into Q4 planning for any ecommerce brand that sources from overseas suppliers. The peak season has extended later than expected, September is running 9.6 percent above last year, and the easing begins in October rather than September.
The October to early November window remains the last opportunity to get inventory positioned for Black Friday and Cyber Monday before port volume and logistics costs fully reflect holiday pressure. The brands that know this can plan around it.
The brands that assumed September would look like a normal post-peak month are getting a correction from the data.
