It appears that the new customs duty implemented by the EU is achieving its goal of reducing cheap ecommerce imports into the region, as freighter capacity between China and the EU has declined. While it remains to be seen whether this is just a small blip on the radar or a sign of things to come, it’s likely reassuring for ecommerce brands in the EU.
Freighter Capacity Between China and the EU Nosedives
Data from Rotate, a data intelligence and strategy consulting company in the air cargo space, shows that the freight capacity between China and the EU has seen a sharp decline in recent days. In fact, according to Rotata analysis, dedicated direct freighter capacity from China and Hong Kong over a two-day period was down 19% compared to the week before.
The most impacted region is Hong Kong, which saw a massive week-to-week capacity decline of 47%. On the EU side, these capacity declines have been the largest at known EU ecommerce gateways like Budapest in Hungary and the Milan Malpensa airport in Italy.
While this data is only based on a short period of time, it could be a sign of things to come for the ecommerce relationship between China and the EU. Specifically, it may lead to the end (or at least the slowing) of the meteoric rise in cheap ecommerce imports entering the EU from places like China.
The New EU Customs Duty May be to Blame
While it’s impossible to know the exact reason (or reasons) for this dramatic drop over the last week, there’s a good chance that it relates to the EU removing the duty exemption for cheap ecommerce imports back on July 1st.
Before this date, parcels valued under €150 would enter the EU customs-free. However, now that the exemption has been removed, all imported goods under that amount face a temporary €3 customs duty per item. This duty applies to many of the most popular items that are bought online, like clothing, electronics, toys, and more.
The duty was put in place to help level the playing field for EU companies, to help ensure imports abide by EU rules, and to slow down the growing flow of cheap ecommerce imports from Asia, which often overwhelmed customs authorities.
Also, starting on November 1, 2026, a €2 handling fee per order will be levied to cover screening costs. Some countries are also adding their own fees on top of what the EU charges, such as Italy, which is adding a €2 fee on top of the new EU customs charge.
While the drop is likely at least partly due to this new customs duty, other possible causes may include geopolitical disruptions, interruptions to flight, rail, and sea routing, and congestion at ports and terminals, which often lead to bottlenecks.
The drop may also be caused by companies front-loading shipping the previous week, to get as many cheap items imported into the EU before the customs duty started being applied.
Our Take
The Future of Cheap Ecommerce Imports Into Europe May Look Different
As more time passes and more data is analyzed, we’ll get a clearer picture of whether this major drop was just a one-time event caused by front-loading imports to avoid the new customs duty, or if Chinese exports to the EU are actually slowing down.
If the latter is true, we could begin to see many fewer items enter the EU from China, as sellers need to work the cost of the duty into their pricing, which may make the prices less attractive to EU buyers. Depending on the exact changes, this could lead to more EU buyers turning back to domestic sellers for their items.
For local brands in the EU that have had to try to compete with cheap and often low-quality international goods for years, this would be a welcome outcome.
However, even in the face of these duties, many Chinese imports will still be more affordable than buying locally, so it’ll be interesting to see how the market responds. Will the small extra fee be enough to slow down the steady flow of these shipments, or will EU customers simply adjust to the slightly higher cost and continue purchasing internationally?
