While back-to-school isn’t for another few months, retailers and customers alike already have it on the brain. Many retailers are holding sales already, and numerous shoppers are already beginning their shopping for the next school year.

All of this excitement had led experts to forecast that back-to-school shopping for children, teens, and college students would increase dramatically this summer. However, these predictions mask major affordability concerns for shoppers, which are changing their purchasing behaviors this back-to-school season.

Back-to-School Sales Expected to Reach New Heights

While the last school year only recently ended, retail experts are already looking ahead and are predicting some huge numbers. In fact, shoppers are expected to spend $43.3 billion on K-12 students this year, up from $39.4 billion in 2025.

For college students, back-to-school shopping is expected to hit $103.5 billion, which would be the first time that this spending has ever exceeded $100 billion. This is all according to an annual survey done by both the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Proper Insights & Analytics.

While these shoppers spend on a variety of different things, K-12 spending is often on school supplies, shoes, and electronics, while the biggest category for college students is electronics.

Many Starting Earlier This Year

While many people think of back-to-school sales taking place much later in the summer, many retailers have introduced them earlier this year. Companies like Target, Walmart, and Kohl’s have already begun offering their back-to-school deals and discounts.

Though it’s still early, many of these earlier sales have been effective at bringing shoppers in. In fact, 54% of the respondents to the NRF survey said that they bought their school supplies during recent sales like Amazon Prime Day, Target Circle Deal Days, and others. Also, 62% of consumers had already started back-to-school shopping by early July.

Affordability is a Major Concern for Shoppers

A big reason why these earlier sales may have been successful for retailers is the affordability concerns that many back-to-school shoppers have. Even before back-to-school shopping began, 78% of consumers expected higher prices on back-to-school items this year. Many are even waiting until later in the season or spreading purchases out over time to stay on budget.

While increasing back-to-school sales looks good on paper, it isn’t always about more people being willing to shop more. Like the recent record-breaking Prime Day sales, some of these forecasted sales are likely to be due to people waiting for back-to-school deals and seeking out the absolute cheapest items they can, to fight off higher prices in other parts of their lives.

Speaking about these affordability concerns, Mark Mathews, the Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research for NRF, said that “Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further. Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options, helping families find what they need while saving time and money.”

While some shoppers took advantage of these earlier sales that companies put on, others are waiting for even better prices. In fact, 46% of respondents who haven’t done much of their back-to-school shopping are waiting for better deals.

Our Take

The Importance of Catering to Budget-Conscious Shoppers This Summer

While the overall back-to-school sales are expected to be high, that doesn’t mean everyone is opening their wallets. In fact, quite the opposite is true, as many people are looking for sales and are willing to wait to buy their items.

As a result, if businesses want to take part in this massive back-to-school opportunity, they need to cater to shoppers on a budget. This may involve extending sales and purchasing windows, offering products with undeniable value so that price sensitivity isn’t as high, and using pricing strategies that keep conversions high.

Some of these strategies include sales, frequent discounts, loyalty programs, bundling similar items together for a more affordable price, or even offering installment payment options.

Also, keep your checkout simple, quick, and straightforward, as a complicated checkout process is one of the biggest ecommerce mistakes you can make, and may lead to weaker conversions. Finally, with many people sticking to essentials during these times of affordability concerns, find ways to show that even your non-essential products fulfill a need or solve a real problem.